AI is not failing. Our sense of time is.
Amara’s Law explains the central illusion of artificial intelligence: we expect AI to transform everything at science-fiction speed, then dismiss it when reality moves more slowly. But while the hype collapses, the infrastructure keeps growing. Expert systems disappointed. Neural networks were declared dead. AI winters came and went. Then came deep learning, Transformers, ChatGPT, and autonomous agents.
The mistake is not believing that AI will change the world. The mistake is expecting the revolution next year while ignoring what it may do over the next twenty.
AI does not need consciousness to eliminate tasks, weaken professions, reshape education, automate bureaucracy, manipulate information, and redistribute power. It does not need to replace everyone. It only needs to become cheap, invisible, and embedded everywhere.
We are probably overestimating AI in the short term.
We are almost certainly underestimating what will happen when society becomes dependent on it.